It is a week since I returned to UK from Iran. While I was flying back the demostrations started. Everyone is waiting to see what happens today. Whatever happens, we all hope it does not involve bloodshed. But feelings are high, and frustrations intense.
The media have concentrated on the green-clad demonstrators generally supporting Mousavi. Everyone is waiting for the word from him on whether to take to the streets or not. The situation is unpredictable. Anything could happen. The root of the problem is that it is not just “democracy seeking” people against street thugs. A significant proportion of the population is fully behind Ahmadinejad, and the words of the supreme leader yesterday gives them carte blanche, at least in their minds, to “defend the revolution”. Many of those whose family or relatives were killed in the Iran–Iraq war, for example, are faithful to the regime and will not tolerate dissent.
So therein lies the problem. Iran is split in two, those who want change and those who don’t. And the passions are so high that the possibility of injury and death will not make them back off. I see the danger of civil war in the days ahead, although I pray it doesn’t happen.
Kavah
It’s good to hear you say that things, politics, are complex in Iran and for good historical reasons. We modern humans don’t seam to like complexity of any kind. Takes too much time and thought. We like easy simple solutions. I think Obama handled Iran, starting well before the election, very well with “concervative” thought and actions. He stayed out of it!
Hope all is well
Bill